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A Way-Too-Early Breakdown of Future Cav, Evan Mobley

College Basketball has just begun, which means scouting a fresh new batch of prospects. If you’re the Cavaliers, that means you’re looking at the top of the class. While I expect Cleveland to perform a little better this season than they have in years past, the young core for this team isn’t quite complete. There’s a general lacking of “superstar” potential on this roster, despite the number of encouraging young players the Cavs have on their hands at the moment.

Easier said than done, but if the team does outperform expectations this year and their draft pick is a little later on in the lottery, I think they’ll explore potential pathways into obtaining a higher pick. This draft is chock full of guys who just may have that potential “superstar” label. Obviously, there’s Cade Cunningham. Jalen Suggs has shot out of the gates like a cannon. Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and others are still waiting for the G-League season to begin... if it even does.

Last year, I was an extremely outspoken Isaac Okoro fan. The Cavs did me a solid and scooped him up at #5. Again, I can’t stress enough how early in the college hoops season it is, but I think Evan Mobley will be that guy for me this year, maybe not to quite the same extent. My Big Board right now is just a blob of players with no comprehensible order, so we’re not going to dive into player rankings right now, but the top two guys for me likely are and will be Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley.

If the Cavaliers could nab either one, that would instantly be a successful off-season and could potentially be the final piece to their rebuild, but today we’re talking about Mobley. Yes, he’s a big. Taking centers in the top 5 or so is often poor value in my eyes, due to the number of competent bigs you can find for cheap in Free Agency or trade for at a bargain price.

But Evan Mobley is different. These are definitely high-end outcomes for him, but he fits the mold of the Anthony Davis’s and Bam Adebayo’s of the NBA. He’s a part of the new age of bigs redefining how the game is played. No longer are these guys just post-up, back-to-the-basket players. These are ball-handling, pull-up shooting, playmaking 7-footers. If you want to build around a big in the NBA, you hold out on the James Wiseman’s and Jaxson Hayes’s of the draft and you target the Evan Mobley’s.

The Cavs have done exactly that so far. They’ve been stockpiling on guards and wings in Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro, Kevin Porter Jr, and Dylan Windler. Up until now, they’ve employed veteran placeholders at the 5. I expect that to change heading into next year. It could be through trade, targeting a guy like Rudy Gobert. If they hold pat, though, Mobley is the guy.

He’s not a perfect prospect, every player has their weaknesses. He’s not a real dominant low-post scorer. He has yet to fill into his frame. As of now, he’s too thin to really provide much value as a screener. Mobley doesn’t quite play with the same level of fire that his predecessor at USC, Onyeka Okongwu, did. That’s not what we’re here to talk about, though. It’s early and we’re just getting the Mobley2CLE campaign started, so this article is gonna hype him up. Let’s dive in.

Court Vision

Early on, USC has been running their offense through Evan Mobley. He leads the team in Field Goal Attempts. They like to get him the ball in the low or high-post in half-court settings. He doesn’t really excel at bully-ball yet. The freshman still has a ways to go in terms of developing his body. However, he is simply too tall and big for undersized defenders and is quick off the ground.

Mobley has settled for a handful of hook shots in his first few games, but not to much success. I doubt that’s something we’ll see him attempt to do as much in the NBA. Post-scoring is a dying art in the Association, but running your offense through the post is still very much in style. You see guys like Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo, and Nikola Vucevic directing traffic and playing a little point center down on the block.

Kevin Love and Larry Nance Jr are effective options at this for the Cavs. Evan Mobley fits the mold as well. The key is having options. Being able to post-up in a pinch is useful. Having a face-up game (this aspect will be covered later on) makes you tougher to guard, but if you’re a threat down low, being able to pass out of double teams is quintessential. That’s what makes all these guys so dangerous down low, and it’s what will make Mobley dangerous down low.

He sees the floor especially well and has a great sense of where his teammates are on the floor. The USC product is a smart player and has a sound feel for the game. Just through his first few games, he’s already looked like a vet out there dishing the ball to the open man for wide-open looks on the perimeter.

Unfortunately for Evan, his teammates haven’t really excelled on their end of the spectrum so far. They have shot a meer 29.5% from 3 and on low-volume as well. Flanking him with shooters like Sexton, Garland, Windler, Love, Osman, etc. should only encourage him to dish the rock more, as his efforts would begin to show up on the stat sheet.

The Cavs have long had much too many stale offensive possessions in the half-court. The best way to fix that is by adding willing passers. Like Evan Mobley. Take a look:

Scoring Versatility

Few centers at the next level aren't trying to add the 3pt shot to their game. Cavs fans would know. As the year went on, Tristan Thompson and Andre Drummond were firing away from 3. Not everyone can do it, though. And not everyone's effective at doing it. There's a heck of a difference between Brook Lopez and Jonas Valanciunas from beyond the perimeter. Both can shoot and have had similar percentages over the past few years. Statistically, JV is the slightly more accurate shooter, but defenses rarely guard him out there compared to Brook. Why is that?

It has everything to do with a player's range, volume, and release. Lopez has more range that he can hit from. He's more willing to pull the trigger. He has a quicker release. Obviously being efficient is critical to being an effective floor spacer, but there are other factors that are just as efficient. Evan Mobley isn't there yet. His range is still developing. He's hitting 40% from three right now, but that's on five attempts through 4 games. His release isn't quick by any means, but he has touch.

Mobley still has a ways to go until he's a true stretch-5 threat, but the potential is there. He's got a tremendous headstart on guys like Brook Lopez who didn't actually start launching triples in-game until mid-way through his career. Mobley's focus can be on refining his shot, quickening his release, and expanding his range. It's no secret how dangerous a center that can protect the rim and space the floor is. Mobley is also quick and agile enough to attack closeouts. Squint enough and you can begin to see a rough sketch of a young Anthony Davis.

Regardless of how Mobley's low-post game develops, chances are he will heavily rely on his face-up game. He's able to rise and fire over his defender. He's got a good-enough first step to gain a positional advantage. Lower body strength isn't an advantage for Evan, but he’s big enough to get into smaller defenders, create some space, and hit a little leaner.

Mobley would add another dangerous offensive weapon to the Cavaliers’ young core. The Cavs are clearly targeting guys who can get their own shots and move the ball. A future trio of Garland, Porter, and Mobley would bring a lot of razzle-and-dazzle to Cleveland. Then Sexton, Okoro, and Windler fill in the gaps between. Evan’s got a lot in his "bag" and it's already evident through the first few games of his college career:

Defensive Impact

We went over the offensive side of things, but Evan Mobley is absolutely a two-way player. USC hasn’t played a tough schedule so far by any means, but UConn and BYU aren’t teams you can scoff at. Of course, any rookie will make mistakes every now and then, especially this early in the year. 

Andy Enfield (USC’s Head Coach) has already given Mobley numerous different roles as the ringleader of the team’s defense. They’ve switched between man-to-man and zone. As the big, he’s shown the capablity to successfully hedge, drop, blitz, and switch in pick & roll coverages. He’s not going to be able to guard 1-5, but he’s shown the ability to shuffle his feet, stay grounded and contest shots on the perimeter. The flashy part of his game are the rejections at the rim, but his contests are just as deadly and effective, completely altering the opponent’s shots

He’s not exactly an in-your-face, bringing the fire and intensity type of guy. Evan is smart, composed, and diligent. He’ll only continue to improve as he builds muscle, but his 7’0” height combined with his 7’5” wingspan is a painfully difficult disrupter for the opposing team. He’s massive. With the smaller Tristan Thompson holding down the starting 5 position in Cleveland for a while, he presents a sharp contrast to what Tristan has offered to the Cavs for a long-time.

If Mobley can continue to keep his fouls down while successfully contesting shots and racking up the blocks, he may possess elite defensive potential, capable of being an anchor for an NBA team. The tape already shows those flashes:

It’s early, but Evan Mobley is a guy to keep your eyes on. If you’re a Cavs fan or a fan of any other team potentially finishing in the bottom-half lottery. Look for him to progress as the season goes on and *fingers crossed* conference play begins. Any team looking for a big in this draft will likely have Mobley on their list, as he stands head-and-shoulders above any other 2021 draft-eligible prospects.

This won’t be the last you’ll hear of him from me either, so stay tuned. Watch him and the USC Trojans for yourself live! Their next 3 games:

Vs UC Irvine (12/8 | 10PM EST)

Vs Stanford (12/13 | 9:30PM EST)

Vs San Francisco (12/16 | 9PM EST)

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