A Realistic Cavs 2021 Draft Board
While we were all enjoying the playoffs, the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery snuck up on us out of nowhere and now lies just around the corner. For fans of teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers, we gather together to… I don’t know, cheer on little ping-pong balls that will radically alter the fate of our favorite basketball club… it truly is one of the oddest phenomenas in all of the major American sports.
But it is a big deal. Cleveland fans can tell you that firsthand… we seem to end up here pretty often. Although not recently, the Cavs have had good luck in the NBA’s tanking-deterrent game show. With 4 1st overall picks over 14 years, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Bennett, and Andrew Wiggins, the Cavaliers really got the full experience at the #1 slot.
However, during the current rebuild, despite being one of the worst teams in the league over this stretch, they have yet to move up in the lottery. Per Tankathon, their odds are as listed:
- 1st: 11.5% (Tied 4th Best)
- 2nd: 11.4%
- 3rd: 11.2%
- 4th: 11.0%
- 5th: 2.0%
- 6th: 18.2%
- 7th: 25.5%
- 8th: 8.6%
- 9th: 0.6% (Lowest Possible Outcome)
- Move into the Top 4: 45.1%
- Move out of the Top 5: 52.9%
The Cavaliers have put together a “Core Four” of young pieces that has the backing of the organization and that they intend on building around: Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro, and Jarrett Allen.
As they progress further into the rebuild, finding pieces that fit with this group of players is becoming more and more of a priority for the front office. If you watched Cavaliers basketball this season, then it’s not hard to point out that their small backcourt isn’t the problem with this team. It’s the lack of a competent supporting cast.
Okoro and Allen are great starting points. Outside of them, there are some question marks.
Kevin Love is not part of the future here. If he somehow sticks around through next season, it’s certain he’ll be gone soon after, when he’s on an expiring deal.
Larry Nance Jr is already 28 years old, but as of now is a border-line core piece. He’s beloved by everyone and his impact goes beyond the stat sheets, despite being able to stuff it in a number of different categories.
The Cavs have quietly collected a quality stockpile of young plug-and-play wings: Dean Wade, Cedi Osman, Dylan Windler, Taurean Prince, and Lamar Stevens. All are arguably capable of receiving minutes for competitive teams, but they’ve been asked to do too much for a Cavs team that lacks guys who can make stuff happen with the ball in their hands outside of Sexland.
Which flows into my 1st point. Cleveland has 3 needs heading into this summer, as they look to fill in the cracks of this team to see how far this young core can take us. Be it through the draft, trades, or Free Agency, these are the shortcomings that the teams should be looking to negate.
The 1st being more playmakers. More shot-creators. More guys who can make stuff happen for themselves and others when they have the ball in their hands. Sexton and Garland take the brunt of the load well, but they can’t both play 48 minutes. When an entire defense is able to key in on one guy without worrying about anyone else being able to get a bucket, it makes defense easy.
I expect Isaac Okoro to improve in this regard, but you can never have too many players that can create in the half-court. Never. It’s absolutely my highest priority for this offseason.
The 2nd need is identifying the Power Forward of the future. I don’t consider this as pressing a need as the first one, but it is still noteworthy. With each of the other starting positions already covered in regards to the future, the 4 remains the biggest question mark.
Kevin Love claims it right now, but his relationship with Cleveland grows more and more tarnished with each season. He’s also soon-to-be 33 years-old. Larry Nance Jr has seen success as a starter or reserve, and offers value in either role for the short-term future. Dean Wade was excellent as a spot-starter for the team and is the consummate role player for the Cavs at that position. He’s the youngest of the trio at 24, but also the the least talented of them. (Not a knock on him.)
I have no issue sticking with Nance and Wade for the time being, but if the opportunity arises to select a Power Forward with high upside, then it adds another element of intrigue to the prospect for Cleveland.
The 3rd priority is hardly a concern for me. The backup 5-spot. Isaiah Hartenstein filled in for JaVale McGee admirably after the trade deadline, but I don’t know if he’s a guy I trust getting playoff minutes. At the moment, I’m alright with Harty anchoring the spot behind Fro, while also having the option of giving Nance and Love (so long as he’s here) some minutes at the 5.
With all that being said, as the Cavaliers begin to shift their drafting thought process from more of a best-player-available standpoint to a fit-oriented perspective, there are situations where you just can’t turn down the talent and value that certain players offer, despite not fitting the ideal specific targeted player archetypes.
Keeping all of these notions in mind, let’s move on to my preferred Cavs-specific draft board. Cleveland is guaranteed to be top 9, but to be safe, I’ll list two more than that.
This is supposed to highlight realistic draft prospects for the team. As much as I love Josh Christopher, the odds are slim to none that we take him this high. There are other examples, but I’m going to be assuming that the Cavs stay put where they wind up for the purposes of this article, and don’t pull an Anthony Bennett with whatever pick they get. But that’s probably asking too much. Regardless, with that being said. Sitting at number one…
Cade Cunningham doesn’t need much of an introduction. If you gave Jayson Tatum the natural feel and vision of a point guard, then Cade is what you get. Now obviously Tatum is a star. He’s far ahead of where Cunningham will be when he enters the league, but he’s his closest comp, in my opinion.
Both aren’t the most explosive out of a standstill. Both love the pull-up and excel at hitting tough, contested jumpers. Distributing the ball hasn’t ever been a strength for Tatum. For the presumptive 2021 #1 pick, it’s quite the opposite. He was given the role of being a scorer at Oklahoma State, but his selling point has always been his passing gifts at 6’8”.
In Cleveland, the OSU-product would likely grab the starting PF slot right out of the gates. Immediately, he solves priority #1 and #2 for me. Adding another half-court creator to the team, and also identifying the 4 of the future.
Cade would fit swimmingly with the young core already in place. Off-ball he’s a perfectly capable floor-spacer. On-ball, he’s able to get shots for himself and others, giving Sexland more opportunities to play off-ball. But with Garland and Sexton able to lighten the load for him, that should allow him to fully display his defensive capabilities as well. In time, Okoro, Cade, and Allen would be a formidable defensive frontcourt.
He’s a little undersized at Power Forward, but with the NBA trending more towards playing wings at the 4 rather than bigs, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue. You look at Jayson Tatum, Bojan Bogdanovic, Marcus Morris, Jae Crowder, Trevor Ariza, etc.
Although Evan Mobley and/or Jalen Green may be in the conversation for certain teams at #1, it shouldn’t be the case for the Cavs.
Although he still appeared emotionless at times, Mobley has mitigated any concerns about not having the mindset necessary to impact games to the degree of what he’s entirely capable of. At 7-feet tall, he’s a nightmare and the next in the line of unicorns on their way to terrorize the NBA.
In college, the USC big-man wowed with his defensive presence. His mobility, instincts, physical tools, and IQ resulted in him being a formidable anchor in the paint. However, until he builds up strength, he’ll be able to get bullied on that end by the bigger post-masters that the Association will throw at him… looking at you, Jokic and Embiid.
Offensively, Evan presents the potential to be a stretch-big. He still has a little ways to go to be a legitimate threat from beyond the 3pt-line, but his touch from the mid-range shows real promise. He’s a triple-threat in the post. He’s able to put the ball on-the-floor, with an advanced handle for a guy his size. He’s able to shoot over-the-top of smaller defenders, or back them down. He’s also an underrated passer when doubles are sent his way. There’s little that Mobley hasn’t shown the ability to do.
For the Cavs, going with him would be a sharp twist from what Cade means for the team. Committing to Cunningham alongside the already-present core, means committing to small-ball. Committing to Mobley, alongside the already-present core, means committing to tall-ball. Somewhat. Except for the backcourt.
Placing Evan Mobley beside Jarrett Allen is a twin-towers frontcourt that seemed to be running out of style not long ago. Recently, though, you see Anthony Davis at the 4 in LA. Kristaps Porzingis in Dallas. Giannis in Milwaukee, Sabonis in Indiana, etc. When you come across talent like this, you find a way to make it work. Evan Mobley can make it work. Cleveland is used to staggering minutes between Garland and Sexton, they could do more of the same in a sort of reverse-Sexland between Mobley and Allen.
If we see continued progression skill-wise from him, the 7-footer should be able to hold his own as a 4 in the pros. Short-term, JB Bickerstaff could either opt to slide him into the starting lineup right out of the gates, or bring him off-the-bench as the backup 5 for a little, to get him acclimated.
Either way, he’s a tremendous 2nd place prize for losing out on the top pick, and he owns the slight edge over Jalen Green for Cleveland, if I were the one pulling the strings, despite me seeing Jalen as a slightly better overall prospect.
The 1st thing that jumps off-the-page with Jalen Green is the explosiveness. He’s an insane athlete. Green is similar to Zach LaVine in this regard, but also many others. He’s the closest thing we’ve seen to a Skywalker since Luke made an appearance in The Mandalorian. The guys floats in the air, and possesses unmatched burst, allowing him to blow-by off-balance defenders with ease.
In the G-League Bubble, he displayed the ability to knock down long-range jumpers off-the-catch and off-the-bounce. Just the threat of his jumper, combined with his elite physical tools make him a pain in the butt for opposing defenses, and he’s already improved in regards to setting up his teammates. As he rounds out the skill-oriented areas of his game… his handle, finishing, and advanced footwork, there’s a frightening offensive player within reach.
Defensively, he’s shown effort, but screens make him a non-factor. With how light he is, it’s not hard to knock him off-balance. This also tends to be a limiting factor for him on the other end of the floor at times, as well. It’s unlikely he’ll ever be a good defender, but if he’s willing to commit, his athleticism should be able to help him be effective in certain situations and perhaps result in the occasional weakside block.
For Cleveland, he’s the 1st example of a rough long-term fit and outlook with the current young core. Short-term he’s a fiery addition to the team’s 2nd unit. The spark-plug creator off-the-bench that is exactly what last-year’s team was lacking. I don’t think you can limit him to that forever, though.
Green is more of an off-guard than a point-guard. He’s also too small to be considered a wing. I have little doubt that Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, and Jalen Green will all be high-level starters in their prime and locking them all up in the same backcourt is a recipe for one of them getting upset with the situation at hand. I don't think starting him at the 3 full-time is a wise option and regardless, I remain high on Isaac Okoro. More-likely-than-not, at some point someone would have to be traded.
Despite the roster conundrum it would create, Jalen Green is too talented to pass up on. There’s absolutely a reality where he’s the best player from this draft class. You can’t pass up on that for a markedly worse prospect.
Jalen Suggs took the NCAA world by storm, as a key cog on one of the most dominant college basketball teams in recent history. Although not a true PG, he successfully captained Gonzaga’s offense as the lead guard for the Zags.
He has his limitations. Many things about Suggs reminds me of Collin Sexton. He relies on his explosiveness and general athleticism to get to the rim. He’s not going to wow you with many advanced jump shots, and his jumper is already inconsistent as is. His handle isn’t anything crazy.
He gets the job done with what he’s got. He plays smart. Jalen works his butt off on both ends of the floor, and what he does have on Sexton, is his size. Suggs grades out as one of the best perimeter defenders in the draft. At a strong 6’4”, he’s able to impose his will on the offensive players more than the vice versa.
Place him on the Cavaliers and he becomes the 6th man for the team, forming a dynamic 3-guard rotation with Sexland to soak up all 96 of the backcourt minutes when everyone's fully healthy. All 3 iterations of the grouping make plenty of sense next to each other… short-term.
Long-term, there’s a chance that you have to have the conversation about trading one of the guards. I think Jalen Green will eventually get to the level where not starting him is criminal. I’m not so certain about Jalen Suggs. I think you can possibly get by with keeping him beyond his rookie contract as a super 6th man, a la Dennis Schroder. Perhaps you can very occasionally run some fun 3-guard lineups. But he does solve the problem of not having a ball-handler/creator off-the-bench.
I have Suggs rated high enough over any other following prospect for me to consider them over him, even if they were a better fit. So at #4 I have the Gonzaga alumnus… and I have to say, I think it’s an intriguing outcome.
In the G League Ignite's debut season, it had a 50% success rate. Jalen Green and Isaiah Todd saw their draft stock rise from the unique experience. Daishen Nix and Jonathan Kuminga had the opposite happen to them. Playing in a professional basketball league at the age of 18 years-old is a tall task, and it proved to be no different for Kuminga.
The Congolese combo forward displayed some encouraging flashes, but was identified as the extremely raw prospect we all should have expected him to be. He’s still learning the ropes of the game and what his role is.
The main selling point is the role that he could theoretically provide in the NBA: an inside-out, 2-way, ball-handling combo forward.
There are few archetypes more valuable. Kuminga is very far away from being close to this, but squint hard enough and you can make out the possibility. In the G League, he handled the ball a good amount. He put his athleticism on display. He was a willing shooter. He showed strong defensive flashes.
The results weren’t always what you’d hope they would be, but some of that is to be expected given the circumstances. It’s the in between that’s the bigger concern: the decision-making and the awareness. He seems to be a hard-worker and willing learner. The next step is putting that into practice.
Kuminga’s G League measurements of 6’6” and 210 lbs are a little disappointing, but the ultimate plan if he were to end up with the Cavs, would still likely be him filling in the gap between Okoro and Allen at Power Forward.
Until he becomes more acclimated to the pros, the more likely scenario is that he fills in a role as a wing off the bench, where he can get more on-ball reps and hopefully work on the jumper. Oftentimes, the boom-or-bust label is overstated, but it might be an accurate one with the 18 year-old. If he doesn’t figure certain things out, he may never be a positive player. If he does? The reward is enticing.
I’ve probably teetered back and forth on Jalen Johnson more than any other prospect I’ve evaluated this year. This article caught me in a Jalen Johnson upswing. Following the top 4/5 of the draft, there’s a large clump of prospects that could be ordered in a number of certain ways.
For the Cavs at the moment, Jalen Johnson leads that group in my opinion. He’s not a perfect player or a perfect fit. None of them are, but the upside with Jalen (The 3rd Jalen in the top 6!) is certainly something for Cleveland to keep their eyes on.
Among the guys his size, his playmaking is 2nd only to Cade Cunningham in this class. Johnson presents intriguing potential as a secondary ball-handler, perhaps even being able to one-day moonlight as a Point Forward. Those don’t just grow on trees.
He isn’t the best athlete in the class, but he’s a capable one at the professional level. He shot a good percentage from 3, but on very low volume. The jumper is a work-in-progress, but if it clicks, then the Duke-product become a much more dangerous threat in the half-court. It opens the door to him providing off-ball value, and the ability to attack closeouts, allowing him to better utilize his passing abilities amongst the scrambled defense.
JJ has legitimately solid court vision, and used his handle, frame, and head fakes to gain advantages against his opponents and get his teammates open looks. However when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, he often looks lost. Whether that’s his fault or Coach K’s, it points to a greater issue.
The effort isn’t always there. Defensively he can be rock solid, but sometimes he only goes half-way. He gives off some frustrated Kevin Love vibes every now and then. You hope that those concerns diminish once he makes it to the NBA.
With the Cavs, the ideal scenario is that he starts with the “Core Four”, so improvement as a shooter is paramount to success when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands. In his early time with the team, though, I wouldn’t mind him running with the bench in a spaced-out 2nd unit as a small-ball 5 alongside Larry Nance Jr, in an effort to give him more on-ball reps and time to work on the jumper, similar to how I outlined a potential vision for Kuminga.
The idea of 4 ball-handlers next to Jarrett Allen is fun, to say the least.
Another supersized ball-handler, Josh Giddey is a unique player who has shot up draft boards this season, due to his play in the NBL over down under. Last year, LaMelo Ball and RJ Hampton came out of the Australian basketball league and had successful rookie years in the NBA.
Giddey didn't have the incoming reputation that either did, but impressed with his performance against the tough, veteran competition he faced. He's a traditional Point Guard in the sense that he is pass-first. He's one of the ilk who have mastered the art of passing. He doesn't just pass it to the open guys, he passes them open.
Josh is a subpar athlete, the most glaring knack on him, but not far behind that is his jumper. It's not great, but there's reason for optimism. He was a willing shooter. With neither of those going for him right now, he relies heavily on a game predicated by skill and his superb feel.
The passing will translate. He's an aggressive passer, unafraid to push the boundaries and force it through tight windows. If he wants to be able to fully realize his talents at the next level, the shooting will have to improve. He has to be able to threaten the defense in some way, to draw advantages and force the opposition to commit to him in some way.
With Matthew Dellavedova on the verge of becoming unplayable anymore in the association, Josh Giddey presents a sound option for a replacement, as the lead guard of the 2nd unit. Bringing Delly, a fellow Aussie, back on a sort of Udonis Haslem-type deal would have an interesting appeal to it.
Both pure point guards, Giddey could provide a steadying presence to a 2nd unit that struggled last season. The Giddey-Nance pick-and-rolls would be glorious. Flock it with shooters in Dylan Windler and Dean Wade, and give Cedi Osman some secondary ball-handling reps. Yeah, I can see it.
He could just as well play with Sexton and Garland, or possibly even both in certain lineups. The Australian 18 year-old brings an identity to the team that it's currently lacking. He can see over the defenders in a way that Sexland can't. He's also just a different level of passer. Ideally, we don't have to resort to option #7 on the board in the draft, but Giddey is more than a decent consolation prize.
Of all the players that are being covered in this post, Kai Jones has the most pedestrian numbers. But don’t get it twisted, there’s nothing pedestrian about him. Kai possesses a physical skillset that puts him in rare-air as a near 7-footer. It’s not outlandish to compare him to fellow freaks-of-nature, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis in that regard.
The Bahamas-native still has a ways to go with harnessing that ability. He’s incredibly light and quick on his feet, but often uncoordinated and out-of-control. His mobility is reminiscent of guards, but he can get knocked off-balance semi-easily by bigger, stronger guys.
While he’s an extraordinary athlete, the most intriguing aspect of Kai’s game is how rapidly he has developed an advanced offensive skillset. From stopping on a dime to hit a contested pull-up off-the-dribble to knocking down tough faders, the flashes were mind-blowing. He showed an ability to attack close-outs effectively getting into the paint and wreaking havoc.
He’s raw. He doesn’t always make the best decision. How much of his abilities will completely translate to the NBA and how real they are in the first place, is all up for debate, but he plays with an incessant energy, and that will never dissipate.
It’s easy to envision him slotting him in at the backup-5 position for the time being, until he proves ready to potentially take the starting 4 position. If he hits, he adds a thrilling new dimension to the team as they establish a core piece at all 5 positions. All I can say, is he’s one heck of an fascinating prospect.
Remember Jordan Clarkson? Meet Jordan Clarkson. James Bouknight specializes at one-thing, bucket-getting. And he’s pretty good at it. Through 2-years in Connecticut, the sophomore has shown that he can score effectively in a variety of ways.
Bouk is dynamic off-the-dribble, able to attack the basket or create separation for the jumper. He’s a terrific finisher around the rim and unafraid to draw contact. Vertically explosive, he’ll surprise you with the occasional put-back jam. He’s inconsistent from range, but the degree of difficulty on some of the shots that he hit should console some of those concerns. He’s got the step-back in his bag.
Tunnel-vision is a problem. You can’t run an offense through him if you want to get others involved. He’s not a natural distributor. If he’s having a rough night-scoring wise, there aren’t many other areas he’ll contribute. The UConn product can be a quality defender when he wants, but that’s an if.
With the Cavs, they get their spark plug off-the-bench that’s been missing since the Jordan Clarkson and Kevin Porter Jr trades. You likely draft him to be a career superstar 6th man, unless he continues to improve to the point where bringing him off-the-bench remains a criminal idea. I don’t believe you should invest in playing him at PG, so adding a solid 3rd-string floor-general is likely a wise idea in the case of Sexland injuries when one of them can’t stay on the floor with Bouk. Expanding Cedi’s role to the de-facto backup PG is a viable option as well. Either way, Bouknight helps diminish the need for guys who can make stuff happen with the ball in their hands for this roster.
Slipping to 9 is the lowest the Cavs can fall in this draft. I’m praying that we don’t have to dig this deep into the draft board. Bouknight provides value to the team, but he’s not ideal. None of the players from here on out are. It’s always best to prepare for the worst, though, eh?
The 3rd college sophomore in a row, Franz Wagner is easily the youngest of the trio. His older brother, Moritz Wagner, has had an up-and-down early going in his NBA career, but he couldn't be a more different player than his sibling.
Wagner's calling card is his defense. At 6'9", he uses his size, smarts, footwork, and underrated athleticism to lock-down anyone from bigger guards to smaller bigs. He's an unselfish, intelligent player. The one who fills in the crevices of whatever the team is missing.
His jump shot isn't as good quite yet as it's sometimes made out to be, but he'll be respected by opposing defenses from beyond. Franz is a very efficient facilitator, as well. He's not going to make many flashy passes, but he's not going to miss the open ones. The Michigan-product is the kind of swiss-army knife on both sides of the floor that all NBA organizations yearn to have, among the mold of players like Paul Millsap, Thaddeus Young, Nicolas Batum, and potential future teammate Larry Nance Jr.
The long-term goal with him, would clearly be to slide him in at the starting 4 position. The 3-man Power Forward room of him, Nance, and Dean Wade would be a fun, versatile group. He doesn't solve many problems in regard to the Cavalier shot-creation woes, but he's exactly the type of player the team should be looking to pair with the Core Four in the starting lineup.
A ball-mover, floor spacer, and active defender, he's a floor raiser in all areas of the game. As clean of a fit as he is with the team, the ceiling with him likely isn't super high. There's other players that I'm more of a fan of adding in this draft, but we could do worse than drafting the German-native.
Yeah, this one's unpopular. Scottie Barnes is beloved by all. He absolutely has one of the best personalities and characters in this draft. The theoretical upside attached to him is exciting. A mobile, high-level defender, who can handle the ball at 6'9" and moonlight as a point guard. I'm not denying any of that, but sometimes it just takes a few holes in a player to limit what they're able to accomplish with their otherwise great skillset.
The most glaring "limiter" with Scottie is his shooting. He's not a good one. That can change, it's one of the easiest NBA-skills to develop (but I'm not saying that it's easy in the slightest). However, there's no reason for optimism. He has a slow, clunky release and shot just as poor from the FT-Line. Even Isaac Okoro, a widely renowned non-threat from deep coming out of the draft, was much further along as a shooter.
The Florida-State product isn't going to be respected from deep unless he makes very significant strides, but he's also not a super outlandish athlete to the point where he can live without it. He's big, strong, and light on his feet. That's not all there is to athleticism, though. Barnes isn't super explosive vertically or out of a stand-still (another area where Isaac Okoro showed a clear advantage over him). He's more smooth and gradual, than quick-twitch and sudden.
I think it's hard to find a role for Scottie in the NBA where he isn't playing as a small-ball 5 or as a Draymond Green-lite. He's a good passer, but not an elite one. The handle is advanced for a guy his size, but it doesn't mean much if he doesn't have a means to make the defense respect him.
In Cleveland, the fit alongside Sexland, Allen, and Okoro is questionable at best. Okoro, Barnes, and Allen is a wrecking crew defensively, but an impediment on Garland and Sexton offensively. Scottie would have to settle as the backup-5 for the Cavs and I'm not sure I'd ever want to move him into the starting lineup unless we see tremendous shooting growth out of that trio of frontcourt players.
BUT it's not all negative. Having him learn behind Nance would certainly be a plus. He'd be a great addition to the locker room. Barnes would be a strong P&R option with Sexton, getting him the ball on the short-roll. I think there is a scenario where he is a valuable player. I'm just lower on the guy than the consensus is. And I think the odds of him realizing his full-potential as a Cavalier are slim.
Hopefully the Cavs don't have to reach this far down their board, but Scottie Barnes is a very real potential target and the organization is likely higher on him than me.
Other semi-realistic potential Cavs targets in their drafting range, who missed the cut:
- 12: Jaden Springer (PG/SG, Tennessee)
- 13: Moses Moody (SG/SF, Arkansas)
- 14: Ziaire Williams (SF, Stanford)
- 15: Keon Johnson (SG, Tennessee)
- 16: Davion Mitchell (PG/SG, Baylor)
- 17: Sharife Cooper (PG, Auburn)
- 18: Corey Kispert (SF, Gonzaga)
Likely unrealistic potential Cavs targets, who I prefer over some realistic ones:
- Josh Christopher (SG/SF, Arizona State)
- Jared Butler (PG/SG, Butler)
- Roko Prkacin (SF/PF, KK Cibona)
- JT Thor (PF, Auburn)
- Isaiah Jackson (PF/C, Kentucky)
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